A New American Energy Policy
by S. Lee Terry, Jr.
When the price of oil was near its 2008 peak, oilman T. Boone Pickens proposed a plan for weaning our country from its insatiable thirst for imported oil. Pickens’ plan does not go far enough to stem the tide of American wealth going to oil producing nations (according to Pickens, approximately $700 billion in 2007 and presumably much higher in 2008). While implementation of some of the Pickens proposals would be helpful in the short run, such as increased utilization of wind power and other alternative energy sources, they would barely slow down the squandering of our national treasure—American goods, labor and property--for the ultimate dissipating asset, gasoline.
There is a better way to free ourselves from the fool’s bargain into which we have stumbled. We can fundamentally change the way the kind of energy we use by changing the way we use energy. In particular, we can require, by sweeping federal legislation, that every medium to large sized American city become a “zero emissions zone” by the end of 2019. In a “zero zone,” the use of non-commercial vehicles with engines that produce emissions would be prohibited. This new federal regimen would effectively mandate the use of electric powered vehicles in our cities. The inevitable result would be the dramatic reduction, if not the elimination, of oil imports to the United States.
Replacing gasoline engines with electric motors in the cars we drive to work and to the grocery store would have three major benefits. First, the electric power needed to power the vehicles would be efficiently created by American sources of energy, including natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar or other alternative energy sources, and would not be dependent on foreign oil imports. Second, the removal of millions of internal combustion engines from our roads and thousands of gasoline stations, bulk fuel storage facilities and underground storage tanks from our cities would eliminate a huge source of environmental degradation and drastically reduce total carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, the need to replace every “city car” with an electric vehicle within ten years would provide a tremendous boost to the beleaguered automobile industry, which should receive substantial government support for the development of new zero emissions vehicles.
In President Elect Obama’s November 16 interview on 60 Minutes, he declared that we cannot let the recent drop in oil prices put us back into “the trance” of accepting more oil imports. Obama said that we need to act now, rather than waiting until the next time gasoline hits $4 per gallon or more, to end our dependence on foreign oil the Mideast and other unstable areas of the world. To overcome the economic inertia that has left us tied in to oil imports for decades, we need to replace the nation’s fleet of oil dependent vehicles. If we don’t, we are doomed to repeat the same cycle of addiction that has wrought havoc on our economy for the past thirty-five years.
The legislation prohibiting the use of any vehicle that is not a “zero emissions” vehicle would apply to any metropolitan area with a population greater than 250,000. As a result, by the end of 2019, every medium to large sized American city would become a “zero emissions zone” where the use of vehicles with gasoline or other internal combustion engines would be prohibited.
Internal combustion engine vehicles would not be eliminated entirely. They could still be used by consumers for transportation outside of the “zero zones,” including travel between different zero zones. So American families could still own and drive their internal combustion powered cars, campers, SUVs and pick up trucks for inter-zone road trips. Meanwhile, farmers, truckers, builders and other commercial enterprises that truly need high powered internal combustion powered vehicles could continue to use fueled vehicles for their work, even within zero zones, though personal use would be prohibited. Still, the vast majority of United States oil consumption, the gasoline used by commuters and other individual consumers for travel within “zero zones,” would be completely eliminated.
When a non-commercial, non-zero emissions vehicle is used to travel to another zero zone, the “non-zero” vehicle would have to be parked at one of several non-zero vehicle centers strategically situated around the perimeter of each zone and the vehicle occupants would be required to take another method of transportation into the city center. Besides parking lots, these “perimeter pods” would include zero emission vehicle rental car outlets, mass transit stations, lodging and other amenities designed to accommodate the out of town visitor. By encouraging the development of mass transit, perimeter pods would reduce traffic within the city center, albeit less drastically than the “no drive zones” in London and other cities, and facilitate the pedestrian friendly urban neighborhoods sought by many cities.
Non-zero commercial vehicles carrying cargo or supporting construction or other heavy industry within zones would be granted exceptions, though licensing fees and tax policies would be designed to heavily discourage intra-zone use. A non-zero emissions vehicle could be stored at a home or business within a zero zone but a non-commercial “non-zero” vehicle could not be parked anywhere within a zero zone other than at the address on the vehicle registration. The prohibition on the use of internal combustion vehicles within zero zones could be enforced by local parking authorities, the cost of which enforcement would be offset by the extremely high fines that would be payable by violators of the ban.
The market response to the enactment of such a plan would be accelerated development of electric “city cars.” Electric cars would suddenly make practical sense for the vast majority of Americans. As the Silicon Valley’s Tesla Roadster has proven, it is now possible to build an “EV” with astonishing performance capabilities only dreamed of a few years ago. While that $109,000 sports car with a carbon fiber body, acceleration from zero to 60 mph in 3.9 seconds and a top speed of 125 mph, costs far more than the average American family can afford, it is also far more of a car than the average American family needs or wants. On the other hand, because the Tesla and every other EV still have the practical problem of a limited range (220 miles for the Tesla) and a lengthy recharging time, there may still be a need, in the short run, to keep fueled vehicles, which can be readily refilled at gasoline or natural gas stations during longer trips, available for travel outside of the zero zones. Other “zero emission” technologies besides EVs, like Honda’s fuel cell engine that emits only water vapor, will be developed but it is critical to the success of the plan that the term “zero emissions” be strictly construed. “Near zero” emission vehicles, such as today’s hybrids, cannot be permitted or the thrust away from imported oil and internal combustion engines may be weakened.
Fortunately, the chronically shortsighted American auto industry has no leverage to oppose a zero emissions vehicle initiative at this time, and may even actively support it if the legislation includes the long term government aid they desperately need, in the long term and the short term, is likely to benefit the industry. Frankly, the U.S. automakers can be forced to become the leaders in zero emissions technology and thereby revive their otherwise moribund industry. Any zero zone legislation would have to include traditional governmental incentives, such as tax breaks, government funded research consortiums, and antitrust exemptions for joint research and development projects.
The full ten years lead time is necessary for several reasons. It will take at least that much time for automakers to develop, manufacture and sell enough low-cost, medium-performance EVs to meet the law’s requirements (Tesla is already trying to produce a $60,000 five door EV sedan by 2010). It will also take time for zero zone metropolitan areas to develop the “perimeter pods” with mass transit, zero emissions car rental outlets, lodging and other infrastructure. It will also take time for the independent regulatory agency established by the legislation, the “Zero Emissions Transportation Agency,” to develop, in cooperation with state and local governments, the details necessary to implement the plan, such as the locations of perimeter pods, the funding of perimeter pod development, and the details of commercial exemptions from the zero emissions ban. ZETA would also have to determine which vehicles meet the zero emissions standard and would have authority to develop a phase-in schedule for the full effectiveness of the law if necessary. ZETA would be primarily guided, however, by the directive that there is an unwavering commitment to the development of zero emissions vehicles. It must be clear that there is no turning back.
A hidden benefit of the zero zone plan is its use of heretofore wasted electric power. Electric power producers often face lower demand for electric power during late night hours, when demand drops sharply. Because of this imbalance of supply and demand, nighttime electric power is priced, at least at the wholesale level, significantly lower than daytime power. If millions of EVs were being recharged at home every night, however, that imbalance would be reduced or even eliminated, increasing the efficiency of our use of electric energy.
Of course, the use of electricity to power these EVs would still involve a substantial increase in the amount of electrical power consumed. As a result, the incentives for the use of wind power, solar power and other alternative energy sources proposed by Mr. Pickens and others would still be needed. Traditional governmental incentives for increasing electrical capacity, including tax incentives, government grants and the reduction or elimination of regulatory approvals, should be included in any zero zone legislation to accelerate the development of traditional and alternative energy production and technologies.
As a long term solution to a major economic problem, zero zone legislation should impress Wall Street, though other constituencies may harbor less positive sentiments. Electric utilities would probably question their burden of meeting the increased demand for electrical energy from charging EVs. Lower income Americans would certainly worry about having to purchase a new zero emissions vehicle but lower cost EVs, including even some used vehicles, should be expected to be available by the end of the ten-year introduction period and the increased availability of mass transit stemming from the development of perimeter pods will provide a meaningful alternative to private vehicle transportation. One of the most negative reactions to zero zone legislation will come from owners of 4 x 4 trucks and off road vehicles, decrying the denial of their inherent right to drive gas-guzzlers around town if they are willing to pay the price is charged for gasoline. And of course, oil companies should be expected to oppose anything that can be expected to lower the value of their principal asset, oil.
So it will be a challenge to pass zero zone legislation, despite its apparent benefits to the economy, the environment and consumers. But there is little doubt that, if the American people really will support “change,” then President Obama and the new Democratic Congress should make it one of their first legislative priorities in January 2009. We cannot afford to wait for $5 gasoline this time.
© S. Lee Terry, Jr. 2008. All rights reserved.
Lee Terry is a corporate and securities attorney with Davis Graham & Stubbs LLP in Denver.